New warming warning as climate pledges fall short

The United Nations has warned that based on current action plans submitted by 191 countries to curb greenhouse gas emissions, the planet is on track to warm by more than 2.7 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.

The findings were released yesterday as US President Joe Biden gathered the world’s biggest emitters for a virtual summit at the White House to try to reach an agreement among some of them to cut emissions of methane – a potent greenhouse gas – by 30 per cent by 2030.

So far, 113 parties to the UN climate accord, including the European Union’s collective of 27 countries, have submitted 86 new, updated and often more ambitious projections. Together, these nations account for about half of total emissions. If they carry out their current plans, they are on track to produce a 12 per cent reduction in heat-trapping gases in 2030 compared to 2010.

That was the good news, said Patricia Espinosa, executive secretary of UN Climate Change. But taken as a whole, the 191 nations that are parties to the UN climate accord would contribute a 16 per cent increase in greenhouse gases in that period.

Espinosa called these numbers ‘‘sobering’’.

‘‘It is not enough, what we have on the table,’’ she said. ‘‘The 16 per cent increase is a huge cause of concern. It is in sharp contrast with the calls by science for rapid, sustained and largescale emission reductions to prevent the most severe climate consequences and suffering, especially of the most vulnerable, throughout the world.’’

In its most recent landmark report, in August, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimated that limiting global average temperature increases to 1.5C would require a 45 per cent reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2030, or a 25 per cent reduction by 2030 to limit warming to 2C.

Many of the biggest emitters, such as China, India and Turkey, have yet to formally commit to a 2030 emissions reduction target. Equally worrying, Brazil and Mexico both put forward weaker emissions targets compared to what they submitted five years ago.

Espinosa said she hoped to see more nations submit plans with more ambitious targets before the launch of the UN global climate summit in Glasgow in early November.

Earth has already warmed by over 1C since the dawn of the Industrial Revolution.

The UN findings released yesterday, based on the national plans, conclude that ‘‘unless actions are taken immediately’’, the projected emissions ‘‘may lead to a temperature rise of about 2.7C by the end of the century’’.