The time is now

Is now the right time to make the switch to an EV? Mark Gilbert, chair of Drive Electric, says yes.

Mobile phones have been around in New Zealand since the 1980s. Back then, they were colloquially known as ‘‘bricks’’. They were hefty, cumbersome and expensive. You could only really own one, if you also wore a power suit.

By 2006, Telecom and Vodafone had 3.6 million customers between them – this was at a time when we had a team of 4.1 million. In the late 1990s, mobile phones became smaller, cheaper, and added important functionality. The arrival of texting helped drive the rapid uptake among the general population, even at 20 cents a pop.

Uptake of the mobile phone started slowly, and accelerated very quickly as they became mainstream. Today, we can’t live without them. Tech-savvy kids use them, and some busy adults own more than one.

There are lessons from the uptake of phones, for another technology on the cusp of rapid adoption; the electric vehicle.

In New Zealand, we recently hit 30,000 electric vehicles on our roads. It’s taken about a decade to get to that number, and most of those came in the last few years. Just like we saw with mobiles, the pickup of this technology is starting to gain exponential traction.

Don’t be fooled, New Zealand is nowhere near the forefront of this global shift to electric. We are cautious followers.

In Norway, more than 80 per cent of new cars bought each month are electric. In the United Kingdom, that figure is around 15 per cent (and growing). In the first half of this year, 2.68 million EVs were sold globally, up 168 per cent from the year before.

What’s behind this momentum? Well, like the mobile phone, EV technology has matured. Prices are coming down. And these cars deliver superior functionality in one critical area: zero tailpipe emissions.

Thanks to huge investment by the car companies, EV batteries have become more powerful and cheaper.

In years to come, just like the mobile phone, we’ll be thinking how we ever lived without them.

EVs, when fully charged, now have ranges between 300km and 600km. The batteries themselves are being designed to last for the useful life of the car (north of 10 years).

As battery prices have come down, EVs have been getting cheaper. Much cheaper. There are two ways of comparing an EV to a traditional petrol car, the sticker price and the total cost of ownership. Both are dropping. Depending on the car and how much you intend to drive it, in many cases it’s already cheaper to own an EV over its lifetime.

One of the reasons for lower cost of ownership, is the cheaper cost of fuel. In New Zealand, EV owners are filling up at home for the equivalent of 30 to 40 cents a litre, rather than at the petrol station for many times that. Despite a government fuel market inquiry, petrol prices are likely to increase in the future as carbon pricing bites through the emissions trading scheme.

Sticker prices, the upfront price you pay at the dealer, are also dropping. EVs and ICEs will reach price parity sometime this decade, probably sooner rather than later.

In New Zealand the Government has stoked parity along, by giving buyers up to $8265 off through the Clean Car Discount. In the first month of the incentive, a record 2000 EVs were sold.

With this rebate, there are new

EVs available for as low as $40,000, like the popular MG ZS EV. There are also second-hand vehicles on the market for much less than this, albeit that supply is tight in the face of surging demand.

The third factor that will drive EV uptake is its unique functionality; the vastly superior environmental performance of an EV to an ICE equivalent. This is even more true in a country like New Zealand, where so much of our energy comes from renewable sources.

EVs are not perfect, but almost all independent and robust studies show that they are a considerable improvement on their total environmental impact compared to conventional fossil fuel cars.

For instance, according to Transport and Environment, a European think tank, an average ICE car burns close to 17,000 litres of petrol over its lifetime, equivalent to a stack of oil barrels 90 metres high.

Comparatively, the metals used in battery cells of EVs are around

160 kilograms. When taking into account the recycling of the battery cell materials, only around 30kg of metals are lost for the ‘‘average’’ battery.

If we all want to live on a temperate planet, the days of owning carbon-emitting personal vehicles are numbered. Countries are already talking about phasing out the import of new ICEs. The UK for example has signalled a 2030 cut-off date.

The car manufacturers have recognised this too, and they are doubling down on an electric future with billions of dollars of investment. Many global car manufacturers have already committed to producing only EVs.

Volvo will go all electric by 2030. General Motors has set the goal of stopping the production of petrol and diesel from 2035. Honda has pledged to be all electric from 2040. Many others have made significant commitments. Don’t forget the world’s most valuable car company is already an all electric one. (It’s Tesla).

So expect EVs to become mainstream sooner than you may expect. And in years to come, just like the mobile phone, we’ll be thinking how we ever lived without them. So don’t get left with the old technology cluttering the garage. If you’re thinking of a new car, it really is time to consider electric.