We need reasons to be HOPEFUL

This week the Government backed a model predicting an alarming scenario of 7000 deaths, if vaccination rates get no further than 75 per cent, and we open up.

The announcement prompted scepticism from some, fear from others, and, if you had switched over from Bloomfield to Bloomberg a little earlier in the week, you would have seen a similar outlook. Not on the epidemiology front, but the economic one, by the ‘‘Dr Doom’’ of economics, Nouriel Roubini (he prefers the term ‘‘Dr Realist’’).

Roubini sees nine economic shocks ahead, which will lead to global ‘‘stagflation’’ (low growth, high inflation), and a pandemic is only one of them.

‘‘Very briefly, what’s going to happen is de-globalisation and protectionism, we’ll have balkanization of global supply chains, ageing of the population in advanced economies and emerging markets, restrictions to migration from south to north, de-coupling between US and China on trade, technology, data, information,’’ he said.

‘‘We’ll have global climate change, which is going to increase the cost of energy, and the cost of food, we have a pandemic [which] is going to disrupt global supply chains.

‘‘Also, cyberwarfare is going to be a source of disruption of production, and, finally, the rise in income and wealth inequality implies monetary and fiscal policy trying to help workers, labour unions, and that’s going to put upward pressure on wages.’’

Covid-19 has always been a tragedy, even if we have been spared the worst of it, and the other long-term problems we face, especially climate change, arguably no less serious. But when we talk about thousands dead and the risk of economic collapse, we forget there are many people who are motivated by hope, not fear.

First-dose vaccination rates in Auckland and Wellington have come a long way in a very short period of time. They have now hit

80 per cent of the eligible population, and I find it difficult to believe that all of these people lining up for vaccines are doing so because they are afraid of dropping dead.

For a lot of people it is because they view vaccinations as a passport to a brighter future of no lockdowns, freer travel, events, and, perhaps, not having to wear a mask so often.

What is motivating people to take the jab right now is the same thing that got a lot of people through that very first hard lockdown, the hope that life might get back to normal with all the freedoms we took for granted.

Just like how, as people sat in lockdown last year, they imagined a future where we might actually come out better off at the end of all of this.

They imagined a world where managed isolation and quarantine might allow us a Covid-free leg up on other places around the world. And, on the economic front, with the handbrake being taken off our borrowing capacity, and budget responsibility rules loosened, that this crisis might lead to a historic spend-up on infrastructure and housing to bring property prices and rents down in the long-term.

Things have not turned out that way.

Instead of an economic opportunity which could help us leave the door open to long-stay visitors, managed isolation and quarantine has become more of a representation of our fear of foreigners, along with becoming an excuse to punish New Zealanders living overseas.

Nobody seriously thinks the housing and infrastructure spend will catch us up to where we need to be, and there’s even more scepticism we will meet our commitments when it comes to emissions. There’s even a fair bit of doubt around whether projects that have already been given the green light will ever truly see the

When we talk about thousands dead and the risk of economic collapse we forget there are many people who are motivated by hope, not fear.

light of day.

Increasingly, there is less about the future that we can find to look forward to in the cautious, careful statements and dreams of our politicians and leaders.

The added sense of despair you see or read about from some in Auckland on social media comes from a place similar to the more fearful turn the public debate has taken more recently.

Some are looking into the practicalities around how they might close their business if level 3 doesn’t work out. These are not people who have decided life will go back to normal, instead they believe things might well get worse.

Then there are others who feel like they might be in danger of losing opportunities and relationships overseas that they have built up over several decades, because they might not be able to travel for several years.

And let’s not forget the people stuck in their houses, who are beginning to doubt whether a level 3 lockdown will end in two weeks, and that, even if it does, they will be re-entering a city where the cafes have closed down, and the central business district is starting to hollow out.

There have been attempts to cast a more hopeful tone by repeating ‘‘good news’’ at press conferences, but most people do not need good news every time a minister speaks.

However, a positive vision for the future is crucial if we are going to keep people united behind all of these measures whether they be lockdowns or vaccination.

Give people some real hope for the future, and you might be surprised how much they might be willing to endure while they wait for it.