Weighing up the nuclear threat posed by Putin

OPINION: Could a nuclear war in Europe be imminent? Thankfully, last week’s coded threat by Russian leader Vladimir Putin to use all the means at his disposal to ‘‘defend’’ his own vastly expanded definition of the Motherland is still sitting on the low side of probability.

The world is not currently facing the same risks that arose during the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis when – if Soviet ships steaming towards Havana crossed an arbitrary line drawn on the ocean by the Americans – the nuclear missiles were going to fly.

On Ukraine, the world has not - yet locked itself into the same sort of eyeball-toeyeball ‘‘You back down! No, you back down!’’ Mexican standoff.

According to the experts, Putin is probably just rattling his nuclear sabre to deter the West from continuing to supply Kiev with the modern weapons that have proved so effective on the battlefield. In the words of the classic hip hop song, Putin is using the nuclear threat to warn the West: ‘‘Don’t push me/‘cause I’m close to the edge

. . .’’ Despite our own minor role in the Ukraine conflict, New Zealand has been engaging in some heavily symbolic gestures of its own in our region.

Over the past week, the government has been weighing the wisdom of expelling the Russian ambassador.

Somehow, we have been contemplating this draconian measure before taking the more substantive step of sanctioning the Russian steel industry oligarch who owns a luxury tourist lodge in Northland. Shouldn’t we punish the guy who allegedly helps supply the steel for Russia’s tanks, before we shut down the normal diplomatic channels of communication?

Last week it also transpired that New Zealand forces have recently been in Fiji, taking part in a military exercise called Operation Cartwheel. This US and Fijian led exercise also included American, Australian and British troops i.e. the members of the new AUKUS nuclear ‘‘defence’’ pact in the Pacific devised by Scoot Morrison, Boris Johnson and Joe Biden. Much the same forces comprise (along with New Zealand) the even newer ‘‘Partners in the Blue

Pacific’’ alliance.

Point being, our ‘‘independent’’ foreign policy appears to be struggling for breathing space, given the pace at which the West’s military strategies in the Pacific have been converging of late. China’s renewed interest in the Pacific has been the reason put forward to justify this expanding involvement of New Zealand forces alongside our traditional, nuclear-armed allies.

In the past 12 months alone, New Zealand forces have taken part in simulated war games from Fiji to Guam, and alongside the UK Carrier Force in the South China Sea. To most people, conducting war games in the alleged enemy’s backyard looks rather more like a provocation than a deterrent. Being a party to such brinkmanship in the South China Sea seems particularly hazardous when nuclear weapons are in the mix.

No doubt, Putin’s aggression in Ukraine – and the war crimes being committed by Russian forces – put the Kremlin in a class of its own.

Arguably though, New Zealand should be being more reluctant about chiming in with the dubious claims being made by our allies about the need to ‘‘contain’’ China militarily, in the Pacific.