Arming Kyiv leaves Europe woefully short of ammo

Europe is facing a ‘‘dramatic’’ shortage of ammunition, and may not have enough manufacturing capacity until the second half of this decade, Estonia’s most senior defence official has warned.

Even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the continent’s arsenals of basic munitions were running low after more than 20 years of gearing up for high-tech counter-insurgency missions rather than sustained land warfare at high intensity.

Since February, Nato’s European members have further depleted their reserves by pledging or donating well over €10 billion (NZ$16.5b) worth of military aid to the Ukrainians, including millions of rounds for firearms, hundreds of thousands of artillery shells, and tens of thousands of shouldermounted rockets.

As a result, many are no longer able to meet their Nato obligation to retain enough ammunition to fight a land war for 30 days, raising concerns that they may not be able to keep up the flow of arms to Kyiv at the same time as replenishing their own forces.

Kusti Salm, permanent secretary of the Estonian defence ministry, said Europe was paying the price for the ‘‘irresponsible’’ failure to prepare for a Ukrainestyle conflict.

Just about every significant variety of ammunition is scarce. The 155mm shells used by modern Western artillery guns in Ukraine are in desperately short supply.

Gaps are even beginning to appear in the vast stockpiles of the United States military. Supplies of missiles for warships, such as the Tomahawk and Harpoon, as well as medium-range multiple rocket launchers and shoulder-mounted Javelin and Stinger systems, are dwindling.

The Wall Street Journal has reported that Washington has fallen behind on US$5b (NZ$8.25b) worth of arms deliveries to Taiwan, including 208 Javelins and 215 Stingers.

German defence industry sources said there were also widespread shortages of tank shells and the various medium-calibre rounds used in automatic cannons on armoured vehicles. Germany is in particular trouble. It needs to procure another €20b to €30b (NZ$33b to $49.5b) worth of ammunition simply to meet its Nato requirements. Some analysts estimate that the German armed forces, known as the Bundeswehr, would run out of munitions after as little as two days of combat.

‘‘Even before (Russia invaded Ukraine on) February 24, it was clear that Germany has a long way to go to meet its Nato targets,’’ said Sara Nanni, the Green Party’s defence spokeswoman in the Bundestag.

Despite a €100b (NZ$165b) rearmament fund, only €1.1b (NZ$1.8b) has so far been earmarked for buying ammunition over the coming year, with political leaders blaming the arms industry for reacting too slowly, and munitions manufacturers accusing the government of dithering in a tangle of red tape.

European governments are now trying to revive their degraded military industrial bases – but many, like Germany, have yet to place significant orders for ammunition.

Arms manufacturers are also struggling with inflationary headwinds from high energy prices, a tight market for skilled labour, the rising cost of raw materials, and bottlenecks in the supply of more advanced components such as semiconductors.