The burning questions: What are the Caps’ chances?

Sunday Star-Times cricket scribes gaze into the crystal ball.

The Black Caps are the world champions in test cricket, but how will they fare in the shortest form of the game?

They are one of three teams to have played at every Twenty20 World Cup without making a final, alongside Bangladesh and South Africa, and are up against it in a Super 12 group that also includes India and Pakistan, who they face in their first match on Wednesday [3am NZ time].

Sunday Star-Times cricket writers take a stab at some of the burning questions around the team.

Why should NZ fans be excited?

Andrew Voerman: Because for the first time since Lockie Ferguson’s T20 international debut in early 2017, they will field a full-strength bowling attack (give or take Adam Milne). Ferguson has never lined up in a

Black Caps T20 XI alongside Trent Boult, but that is set to change and together with spin duo Mitchell Santner and Ish Sodhi, they will form 80 per cent of a strong bowling attack, which will be the foundation on which Black Caps wins are built.

Ian Anderson: Because

New Zealand have done reasonably well at big events of late. Two ODI World Cup finals in succession and a World Test title show why this current iteration of the side is the best collection of cricketers in NZ’s history. Admittedly, T20 feels like NZ’s least productive format, but a world ranking of four indicates a semifinal spot is within their grasp. Expect Kane Williamson to lead the way with his batting and captaincy and Lockie Ferguson to be a handful even on the slow pitches, while Devon Conway is yet to put a foot wrong since his debut. Mark Geenty: Narrow runners-up in the last 50-over World Cup, semifinalists in the last T20 World Cup and world test champions in June: this team’s stocks and confidence have never been higher on a global stage. Throw in their T20 form revival, where they won four successive home series last summer, and they hit the desert with plenty of belief they can progress to the knockouts. The impact of the IPL’s most successful coach Stephen Fleming with the camp in recent days can’t be understated either.

Why should fans be worried?

AV: The other 20 per cent of the bowling attack, for starters. Whether Tim Southee comes right after a couple of expensive warm-up outings could be the difference between a

place in the semifinals and an early exit. With the Caps almost certainly needing to win at least one of their first two matches, their batsmen won’t have long to adjust to conditions.

IA: Williamson’s elbow troubles could be their Achilles heel.

There are doubts that likely openers Martin Guptill and Tim Seifert will flourish away from home, and it feels like this squad lacks exciting game-changers. MG: Williamson’s elbow injury continues to niggle away (although he’s defied it before with some wonderful innings), and the rest of the batting has question marks, especially on sluggish, spin-friendly pitches. Glenn Phillips was the star of the home summer, but has barely fired a shot in the UAE, and Williamson and Conway will carry a hefty burden. If neither of them hits stride with the bat there could be trouble.

Tim Seifert is set to keep and open the batting. Are these the right decisions?

AV: I wouldn’t call them the wrong decisions, but there is room for debate, given Seifert’s form in 2021. Conway is wellequipped to open and would give the Caps a valuable right-hand/ left-hand combination. He could also take the gloves, freeing up room in the XI for another bowling option like Mark Chapman or Mitchell.

IA: Not worried about Seifert with the gloves, but there are other options – Conway and Phillips – if the selection group feel his batting doesn’t demand that place. I’d prefer the lefthanded Conway to open and Seifert bat at six.

MG: It’s a big tournament for Seifert who hasn’t kicked on from that wonderful knock against India in Wellington. Only a marginally better keeper than Conway, I’d prefer to see the latter open and take the gloves, which either sees Seifert slip down the order or allows Chapman and/or Mitchell to bolster the batting.