Is Luxon a game-changer?

There was one odd note in what was otherwise a very good week for National’s new leader Christopher Luxon, when he hired a black Mercedes to drive him across the road to Parliament from his apartment, a walk of a few hundred metres.

Outside the Wellington beltway no-one much noticed or cared, but those making the inevitable comparisons between Luxon and his mentor, former National leader Sir John Key, seized on it as symbolic of Luxon lacking the essential quality that lay behind Key’s enduring success, the common touch.

Key was the Everyman; someone who came from humble beginnings, who was smart and successful, but also relatable, occasionally goofy and not afraid to laugh at himself or his wealth.

Luxon ticks the first two boxes as smart and successful; he has yet to demonstrate the other qualities that made Key one of our most popular prime ministers ever.

With two years to go till the next election, Luxon has time to fill in those gaps.

For now, though, the relief that he is in charge is palpable within National. As a fresh face, who isn’t tainted with the baggage from National’s awful Opposition years, Luxon can expect a honeymoon period in the polls simply because he’s not Judith Collins or Simon Bridges.

That could be a game-changer for the next election.

Success breeds success in politics; a reversal in National’s fortunes would lift spirits in a demoralised National caucus and re-energise its MPs to take the fight to the Government; it would woo back some, if not all, of the tens of thousands of disaffected Nats who have defected to ACT; it will see money flow back into National’s coffers, both from its grassroots supporters and the big end of town – something which has probably already started happening, especially given the backing of Key and the likes of former finance minister Steven Joyce and others.

Just as crucially, it would have an immediate impact on the quality of candidates putting their hands up for the next election.

Everyone loves a winner. Right now, Luxon has a window in which he has everyone’s attention, and people are interested again in what National has to say.

They are worn out by the pandemic, and by churn and the speed of change; the political cycle has become frenetic, and that could potentially hasten the mood for change, which is usually what sweeps governments out.

But having everyone’s attention can be a double-edged sword and making a succession of wrong moves during those first few weeks as Opposition leader can also cement negative perceptions.

Luxon only needs to ask his colleague, Todd Muller, who was briefly National leader.

There will be unrelenting scrutiny on Luxon’s public appearances, on his statements about the economy, on how the Government should handle Covid (people seem to be in equal parts impatient to open up and fearful of opening up), and on his personal religious and social beliefs, which are at the extreme end of the conservative spectrum compared to those of most Kiwis.

Luxon can expect a honeymoon period in the polls simply because he’s not Judith Collins or Simon Bridges.

While holding conservative Christian beliefs in particular may not be fatal to his political ambitions – most Kiwis probably feel there are bigger worries nearly two years into a pandemic – a hamfisted answer could still be disastrous.

But Luxon has so far handled those questions adroitly. It was clear that he had prepared for them – or ‘‘workshopped the answers’’, as one seasoned observer noted – just as he had prepped for the questions about his business success and wealth, after questions about him owning seven properties.

On the latter, Key would probably have counselled him that wealth is not a handicap in politics; in Key’s case, in fact, many voters saw it as a positive that he wasn’t doing it for the money.

So fronting up on his wealth, rather than defending it, is unlikely to have damaged Luxon.

So far it seems most of his training on how to handle the media blowtorch has been done by his deputy, Nicola Willis, though it’s also expected he will be mentored by Key through the early stages of his leadership.

Luxon has also reached out to Key’s formidable former chief of staff, Wayne Eagleson, for advice. Eagleson’s experience will be invaluable in setting up an effective back office and filling crucial staff appointments.

Luxon is also known to be very close to MediaWorks chief executive Cam Wallace, his right-hand man at Air New Zealand, and Joyce.

Other former MPs who are willing National to get back on its feet have also made it clear they are prepared to support Luxon if he asks for help.

The most critical roles will be a chief of staff and chief press secretary. Collins’ chief press secretary, John Mitchell, a former adviser to property developer Terry Seripisos, left with Collins, and the rest of the team is relatively green.

Whoever Luxon appoints will be up against Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s hugely experienced team of chief press secretary Andrew Campbell, and his deputy Ellen Read, who have the advantage of knowing the press gallery and have media contacts going back a number of years.

But Luxon also has plenty of his own management and CEO experience to navigate the next few hurdles easily, including reorganising his front bench.

Willis, and Bridges, who was named finance spokesman on Friday, will take the two top spots, and others expected to make the top 10 include Northland GP Shane Reti, who is highly regarded by the public; Chris Bishop, who has been one of National’s most effective MPs and is also a close friend of Willis, up-and-comer Erica Stanford and the personable Mark Mitchell.

Others to watch are said to be first-term MP Simon Watts, and potentially Muller, who was on his way out under Collins, but may be on his way back under Luxon.

But while having a frontbench clean-out might boost caucus morale, it is not going to shift the dial on public opinion.

That’s solely down to Luxon, and how he navigates the next few weeks.