Challenges, but optimism

OThe next 12 months will be challenging . . . But there is an overall sense of ‘getting on with it’.

ne thing that has become clear over recent months is that it’s very hard to predict what might be ahead in this strange world of living with Covid-19.

When The Monitor first launched this year, we were pondering how everyone could have been so wrong about how bad the pandemic was going to be for New Zealand. Back then, there was a sense that we had dodged a bullet in 2020 and everyone had almost over-reacted a bit.

Then Delta arrived in August and Auckland has become of the cities to have spent the most time in lockdown. Predictions are that the economy will pick up again, particularly as the country moves into the ‘‘traffic light’’ system of managing the virus, but it will be mid-2022 before gross domestic product recovers to mid-2021 levels.

Despite the unpredictability of the current conditions, we’re using this issue to ponder what might be coming in the new year.

Dileepa Fonseka has looked into how likely it is that the Government’s original strategy to ‘‘reconnect New Zealand’’ will prove workable – and has found that many of the details that had initially been included look like unnecessary complications when the country is already dealing with significant risk within its borders.

For exporters, there is a real fear of being left behind as other countries open to the rest of the world, Melanie Carroll explains.

But the world isn’t just Covid and Tina Morrison has examined some of the trends that are affecting our rural sector – particularly the increasing desire of consumers to know the story of where their food comes from.

She’s found that some of our really high-value exports – the wagyu beef that’s been called the best in the world, for example – create a ‘‘halo effect’’ that raises the status of the rest of our products.

She’s also looked at the likelihood of plant-based proteins becoming a serious threat to more traditional farming.

The next 12 months will be challenging for the country, particularly as we deal with added pressures such as inflation and rising interest rates. But there is an overall sense of optimism and ‘‘getting on with it’’.

I hope that by the next issue of The Monitor next year, we can report that the recovery story has started in earnest.

You may notice that we aren’t running our normal data dashboard this issue. This is because our publishing date did not align with the required updates from Stats NZ. You can see it online at stuff.co.nz/ business/the-monitor, where we update our indicators in real time.