Missile tests and military priorities

North Korea has begun the new year a lot like the last: a series of missile launches that reveal progress in diversifying and expanding its arsenal with missiles that may be harder to detect and defend against.

These tests also underscore how Kim Jong-un’s regime has been retreating inward – making apparent advances on its nuclear capabilities and ballistic weapons – while refusing to engage with United States and South Korean negotiators seeking to restart denuclearisation talks.

Since September, North Korea has conducted a series of tests of ballistic missiles despite the multiple United Nations Security Council resolutions that forbid them.

The Biden Administration this week announced fresh sanctions on North Korea.

On Friday, North Korea conducted further missile tests, and yesterday it test-launched ballistic missiles from a train, in apparent retaliation against the sanctions.

More than four years have passed since Pyongyang tested an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of reaching the US mainland. Since then, Kim’s regime has shifted its focus to building a wide range of short- to intermediate-range missiles with enough range to reach US allies in the region and US forces stationed there – a strategy that has allowed Kim to advance his ballistic missile programme and signal progress without directly threatening the US homeland or engaging in diplomacy.

‘‘This is a very effective way of saying, ‘We’re still in this game. We’re still advancing our capabilities’,’’ said S Paul Choi, principal of Seoul-based consultancy StratWays Group and a former South Korean military officer.

New ‘hypersonic’ missiles

On Wednesday, North Korea launched what it later said was a ‘‘hypersonic’’ missile, a priority of its weapons development programme, and a reference to the latest warfare technology being developed by military powers such as the US, Russia and China.

Hypersonic weapons fly fast at low altitudes and are much easier to manoeuvre than traditional ballistic missiles, making them difficult to track and intercept. It was third test since September of what North Korea described as a hypersonic weapon.

North Korea launched two more missiles on Friday, the South Korean and Japanese military said.

For the first time in nearly two years, Kim appeared in state media supervising Wednesday’s missile test, which may be a signal of how much emphasis he is placing on this technology, experts say.

There is disagreement among weapons experts in South Korea and Japan on whether North Korea’s latest missile meets the precise technical definitions of a hypersonic weapon. South Korean defence officials say the missile is detectable by existing defence systems.

But there is broad consensus that the latest developments highlight Pyongyang’s growing capability to evade existing missile defence systems. And it comes at a politically sensitive time in South Korea, where campaigning is heating up ahead of the presidential election in early March, and candidates are debating South Korea’s response to North Korean hypersonic developments.

Kim’s missile ambitions

In January 2021, Kim unveiled a five-year plan to expand his nuclear arsenal, including ‘‘preemptive’’ and ‘‘retaliatory’’ strike capabilities that would allow its warheads to ‘‘accurately hit and extinguish’’ targets within 15,000 kilometres, which includes Washington, DC.

His must-haves included the development of hypersonic weapons, solid-fuel ICBMs that can be launched from land and sea, spy satellites, reconnaissance drones, and more research and development into advanced military equipment.

Kim appears to be on track. In recent years, there has been a

huge growth in the diversity of new missile systems in North Korea.

Since the January 2021 announcement, North Korea has introduced seven new missile capabilities, according to Ankit Panda, weapons expert and a senior fellow at the US-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Some of the latest missile technology may also be serving a dual purpose of improving North Korea’s IBCMs. The missiles Pyongyang tested this month use the same type of engine that North Korea used for its flighttested ICBMs in 2017.

Diplomatic standstill

Since the collapse of the 2018 summit between Kim and then-US president Donald Trump, US and South Korean negotiators have urged North Korea to return to negotiations, saying they have no preconditions for the North’s return. But the Biden Administration has not shown that it is

willing to grant the sanctions relief Kim seeks.

The new round of sanctions is likely to fuel North Korea’s complaints that the US has ‘‘hostile policies’’ towards Pyongyang. Kim claims that his missile tests are solely for defensive purposes – to be able to respond in case of an attack by the US.

With just a few months left in his term, time is running out for South Korean President Moon Jae-in, a willing mediator between North Korea and the US, to make meaningful diplomatic progress on North Korea.

‘‘The weapons Pyongyang has tested and paraded during Kim Jong Un’s rule may not be reliable yet,’’ said Duyeon Kim, adjunct senior fellow at the Centre for a New American Security’s Indo-Pacific Security Programme. ‘‘But they demonstrate the regime’s goals, which will be achieved in time in the absence of a diplomatic agreement with the United States.’’