National sees a chance but it’s no slam dunk

As the long line for a cup of tea or coffee snaked its way through the Te Pae Christchurch Convention Centre, the National Party faithful were in fine fettle.

The first day of the annual National Party conference had attracted over 650 members and about 120 potential candidates for its ‘candidates college’, a kind of crash course for how to be an MP for aspirants to be representatives of the people.

Christopher Luxon and Nicola Willis’ faster-than-expected success at making National a competitive proposition again has aroused the party from its slumber and there were plenty of people who now want to be on board.

During both the wait for a cuppa and while imbibing and speaking to members, there was a positive feeling amongst them. They can see a possibility of winning the election.

On Luxon, however, many are a bit more wary. Many of these party members have served for a long time, and while there is not scepticism per se, there is still a cautious ‘‘wait and see’’ feeling.

And National’s biggest electoral ally remains the times in which we live.

Inflation is going door to door and convincing people to vote for the National Party. It pops up at the shops. And it gives ammunition to every volunteer National can rustle up.

While the Labour Party is banking on inflation slowing by the end of this year and into next, its effect is cumulative, percentage increases come on top of an increased base. Even 5% inflation represents a slow down in price rises, not a reversal.

Still, the Government will have been helped by the sharp drop in fuel prices over the past week, while the trajectory of the war in Ukraine is anyone’s guess.

When Luxon stood to open the conference – a pretty slickly produced affair with a voiced-over announcer that gave the whole thing a slight sports game feel – he came right after he was impressively introduced by wife Amanda.

Amanda Luxon, who spoke very well, sought to introduce her husband to the members, not just as a politician, but as a person. Having spouses introduce their political other halves is not very common in New Zealand.

‘‘Thank you for inviting me to tell you a little bit more about the man I love as a husband, admire and who as you know, is the leader of the National Party,’’ she said, before giving chapter and verse on how they met, Luxon’s traits as an attentive listener (which is definitely true), her parents’ background as corner shop owners who lived above the shop, and how they met.

Luxon also talked about his own upbringing, family and values.

When asked in a media standup afterwards why he did so, he said that it was important people know not just what he had done but who he was.

Along with a line during his introductory speech that he looked forward to meeting more members, it was a reminder that while Luxon is the leader of National, he is not deeply ‘of’ the party.

The party clearly still wears the scars of the past few years and no-one wants to get ahead of themselves.

A voracious reader, he has imbibed and drawn lessons from as much National Party history as he can, but he lived away from New Zealand for 16 years. He is not a long term National Party person in the sense that he knows and understands the organisation inside out.

Not yet anyway.

Deputy and finance spokesperson Willis gave the first major speech of the conference, delivering a solid party conference type speech: some nods to the past, a lash at Labour for being hopeless, some funny one-liners and plenty of red meat for the members.

Unfortunately, because her speech was first out of the blocks – National likes to headline with the economy – party members appeared either tired or hungover and the applause was pretty muted.

The party clearly still wears the scars of the past few years and no-one wants to get ahead of themselves. Reference to that period of backbiting, white-anting and leadership instability are spoken about in abstract and distancing language. It is a bit of a ‘‘don’t-mention-the-war’’ situation.

This is not surprising. Many of the members have served the party through thick and thin, including with leaders they did not like much.

There seems to be, however, no illusion about the task that Luxon

faces. Outgoing party president

Peter Goodfellow in his speech talked about National needing to look like modern New Zealand.

There is a determination that party selections will occur as quickly as possible to get good candidates ensconced in electorates, especially seats National thinks it could wrest back from Labour after its 2020 demolition. Even in an MMP environment, electorate seats matter: they act as shop fronts up and down the country and bring resources to MPs across the motu.

Once the local party branches have chosen their candidates next year it will be up to the party to name the list. If insufficient diversity of talent is identified in the seats, the list will have to do the heavy lifting, something that party officials, as well as Luxon himself, are firmly aware of.

Jo de Joux, a formidable campaigner during the John Key and Bill English eras, is now back in the tent working fulltime for the party’s campaign manager. William Durning, the effervescent former chief executive of the Waikato Chamber of Commerce, is now the party’s general manager having taken over from Greg Hamilton, who has been in the job almost as long as outgoing party president Goodfellow. A new president, elected by the board, will be revealed today.

There are also now clearly rising challenges for Luxon. Despite the past week being a tough one for Labour, with its cost-of-living payment not getting to hundreds of thousands of people, while going to some expats and the dead, it didn’t all go Luxon’s way, with National facing confected and ultimately incorrect claims that it had walked away from the tax policy it had taken into the May budget.

In fact, National has doubled down on tax as its turf. Indexing of tax thresholds and ditching the 39% tax rate will be the first building blocks for this.

Meanwhile, National’s general political narrative and account of New Zealand’s problems and what it thinks Labour’s failings are, is becoming sharper and more well honed.

It is setting the stage for the most sharply ideological election in a very long time.

On many issues there are sharp differences: over tax, how centralised public services should be (three waters, health, polytechnics), immigration. This is undergirded by National’s meta-critique of substance over style and delivery over spin.

National, however, having set up and crafted the critique of the Government and nation’s direction, will now face the strategic decision on when and how many of its solutions it chooses to reveal.

Going early gives voters the chance to see an alternative, but gives Labour – especially skilled practitioners such as Grant Robertson and Chris Hipkins – the time to tear ideas down. Going too late risks losing momentum.

If the polls are anything to go on, there is clearly a receptive but as yet unconvinced electorate.

Luxon will address the conference today.