The Cane query

Foster faces tough call over No7

Ian Foster has a decision to make in 2023 that might make the All Blacks coach’s summer just a little uneasy. It will test his loyalty, his judgement and his mettle as a coach and selector. And it is no stretch to say it could define the most important year of his career.

The much-criticised coach has overseen a recovery of sorts with his All Blacks in 2022, surviving a potential mid-season sacking when his players delivered big time in the final dozen minutes at Ellis Park in Johannesburg and cajoling a seven-test unbeaten run to wrap up the season on.

Better. But was it good enough?

Serious questions still hover over these All Blacks who finished the year with eight wins, four defeats and a draw. That’s a 61.5% success ratio, and well below anything resembling an acceptable number for this team. And even while chalking up the results, the inconsistencies continued as they suffered notable meltdowns in Melbourne and at Twickenham, and had their wobbles in getting, unconvincingly, past Japan and Scotland as well.

Foster has a lot to think about heading into what could be a summer of discontent, and at the head of that list has to be the vexed question of what he does at No 7 for World Cup year. Does he remain loyal to first-choice skipper Sam Cane who missed the bulk of the northern tour with a fractured cheekbone? Or does he reward the younger, more dynamic Dalton Papalii for a series of standout performances in 2022?

It’s a head-scratcher that will likely take Foster to some uncomfortable places. He is fiercely loyal to Cane and has a strong relationship with the loose forward, who backed him to the hilt when his job went on the line in the wake of the three defeats in four tests to open the year.

But you can make a strong case that Papalii is now the superior No 7, with the most upside. Can Foster afford to ignore form for a RWC as wide open as it’s ever been? Or does Cane’s experience, leadership and nous gain him the nod against a rival clearly playing better?

Other issues cry out for attention. This is still a wildly inconsistent All Blacks side, with serious concerns around mental strength. The lineout remains a worry. Defence still has its lapses. The balance between kicking and ball-in-hand attack remains a work in progress. There are still starting and back-up positions to nail down.

So, in the wake of a northern your that netted three victories and that disappointing 25-25 draw at Twickenham, here are the five big questions facing Foster as he readies for France 2023.

1 Sam Cane v Dalton Papalii – who starts at No 7?

Foster has some interesting selection calls to make around all three Barrett brothers, but nowhere is the decision as tight, emotional and pivotal as at openside flanker, where Papalii’s outstanding form has him knocking the door down for a regular assignment in ‘23.

On form this is a no-brainer. Papalii, with his staunch defence, high workrate, and superior speed and athleticism, shades the solid, but unspectacular, Cane.

His intercept try at Twickenham was a fine example of the dynamic play he is capable of.

Yet Cane is Foster’s firstchoice leader. When the walls were closing in mid-year, Cane was there by his side, backing his man. Coaches, as a rule, treasure that sort of loyalty, and Foster will be tested massively by this.

Foster has to be decisive here. Super Rugby may guide him somewhat, and Cane is certainly good enough to reearn his spot. But this shapes as a massive blind spot for a coach who is going to have to get a lot right to succeed in France.

2 Is this All Blacks group mentally strong enough to bring back ‘Bill’?

If there was a glaring deficiency this year it had to be the lack of consistency. Not once this season did they produce back-to-back statement performances. And on several occasions they surrendered strong positions to hint strongly at a lack of mental strength and ruthlessness.

Foster himself noted it as a concern after the Rugby Championship when it manifested most visibly in Melbourne as they coughed up an 18-point lead in the final quarter, only to get out of jail at the death.

The northern tour did not exactly address this issue. They allowed Japan to charge home and make a contest in Tokyo, similarly Scotland, and then at Twickenham they lost a 19-point lead in the last nine minutes to suffer a draw that felt like a loss.

Great All Blacks’ teams deliver knockout blows when opponents are on the ropes. So far this group of Foster’s decidedly lack the killer instinct.

3 Is the old firm of Sam Whitelock and Brodie Retallick still the answer at lock?

Scott Barrett looms as pivotal in this call. Whitelock and Retallick broke the world record for most enduring test second-row partnerships at Twickenham, but it’s worth asking whether they have one more commanding year in them?

Whitelock had a strong campaign after an uncertain end to ‘21, while Retallick was steady rather than slick. Barrett was one of the form forwards of 2022, and saw time at both lock and No 6 as injury and suspension allowed Foster to be fluid in this area.

You suspect Foster will try to wring one more year out of his old firm, but the smart move might be to start the younger Barrett in the second row and bring Retallick off the bench. Running Barrett at No 6 is a compromise that has netted mixed results.

4 Is Will Jordan any shot to play fullback for the World Cup?

Foster clearly likes the balance of having Beauden Barrett on the field at No 15 as a second receiver option. Jordie Barrett’s belated midfield move (now surely set in stone) has allowed that.

And Jordan has played well enough on the right wing so as to hold that spot on merit (he did make World Rugby’s test XV of the year there).

Again, if Foster was a visionary type you would say play the explosive Jordan where he operates best, at the back. But it’s hard to see him veering from his 2022 blueprint there, which means Crusaders’ fans will continue to be frustrated.

5 Do the All Blacks have any issues on the depth front?

Yep. Halfback for starters. Behind Aaron Smith is, er, daylight. TJ Perenara’s Achilles rupture likely removes him from the mix, which means Fin Christie, Brad Weber and a recovering Folau Fakatava scrap it out as back-up.

And prop also shapes as an area of concern, especially behind starters Ethan de Groot and Tyrel Lomax. Fletcher Newell’s continued development should tick the tighthead box, though loosehead is a little less clear.

The bench was a disaster in Melbourne and at Twickenham, and this is an important facet of the modern game that has to be fixed quick.