A sunny new fighting season

The armoured vehicle, an old Soviet-designed 2S1 selfpropelled howitzer, swung loudly around the corner. Atop sat four Ukrainian soldiers in summer uniforms, their feet dangling, a pack of Coca-Cola by their side. One soldier raised an ice cream cone triumphantly above his head as he passed, while another waved the peace sign.

Spring has finally sprung in southern Ukraine. And with temperatures hitting a high of 25C last weekend, expectations of a long-awaited counteroffensive against occupying Russian forces are in full bloom.

An unusually rainy few months had left the ground muddy, sticky and unsuitable for heavy vehicles. But with the recent patch of dry weather, conditions are nearly optimal for the much-anticipated counterattack, which President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and others have described as a makeor-break chance to show Western backers that Ukraine is capable of taking back its land.

Although there have not yet been any dramatic troop movements like the lightning sweep by Ukrainian troops through the northeast Kharkiv region last year, the counteroffensive may already be under way – quietly.

In the Zaporizhzhia region, which is expected to be a major focus of Ukrainian forces as they seek to recapture the city of Melitopol, the weather has been closely watched in recent weeks.

A push south through this largely agricultural area, now full of bright yellow fields with

early summer’s rapeseed crop, could allow Ukraine to break the ‘‘land bridge’’ between mainland Russia and illegally annexed Crimea, cutting off vital logistical supply lines, and positioning Ukrainian troops for further attacks.

Such a campaign would also push the front line back from places like Orikhiv, a oncethriving town of 19,000 that now sits about 5km from the Russian lines and for months has suffered nearly daily attacks from shelling, according to Deputy Mayor Svitlana Mandrych.

‘‘We’ve been hearing about this counteroffensive for so long,’’ Mandrych said. ‘‘We just hope that it happens and that it is successful.’’

Talk of a spring offensive has dragged on for months. Zelenskyy and his military commanders have said that they were waiting for more weapons, ammunition and other supplies to arrive.

Ukrainian troops have also been training to use new Western-provided fighting vehicles and other gear.

But even if sufficient material was in place, the weather

presented a more elemental obstacle. ‘‘It depends on God’s mindset and the weather conditions,’’ as well as the force strength that could be mustered, Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov said.

In Zaporizhzhia, the problem could be described more simply: mud.

Ukraine’s muddy season, known as ‘‘bezdorizhzhia’’ (‘‘roadlessness’’), is an annual fact of life in Zaporizhzhia. The clay-heavy soil, which helps to make Ukraine an agricultural powerhouse, does not drain well, resulting in a wet, gloopy mess that can bog down not only conventional vehicles with tyres but also tracked vehicles like tanks or the 2S1 howitzer.

The weather has played a significant role in the war in Ukraine since Russia invaded last year.

The winter months over the end of 2021 and the start of 2022 were unusually mild, leading the mud to thaw earlier than usual. This led to an earlier muddy season, which saw numerous Russian tanks and other heavy vehicles stuck in fields or confined to paved roads, where they were easy targets for the Ukrainian defenders.

Now, warming weather provides other advantages, including better tree cover for troops and vehicles, and more hours of daylight.

Ben Hodges, a former commander of US Army Europe, said ground conditions were just one of several factors, including the readiness of Ukrainian troops, and whether their Russian adversaries had been degraded by air strikes or distracted by prolonged fighting in certain areas like Bakhmut so as not to be able to anticipate Ukraine’s next moves.

In a field in western Zaporizhzhia, about an hour’s drive from Orikhiv, the 1st Tank Battalion practised offensive manoeuvres this week with Soviet-developed T-64 tanks, ploughing through the fields in formation and deploying smokescreens.

Mandrych and other remaining Orikhiv residents have even taken the time to replant some of the flowers along the city’s central square. ‘‘We are keeping up our fighting spirit,’’ she said.