Yes, NZ is open – to some

The prime minister has been in the US this week, telling the world that Aotearoa is open. But what about those without money or business connections? Laura Walters looks at whether New Zealand is living up to its humanitarian commitments.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is spreading the message that New Zealand is open to the world. But those in the refugee community say this message is inconsistent with Aotearoa’s recent humanitarian record.

When Covid-19 hit in 2020, the world was already facing a refugee crisis. Now, with theworsening conflict in Ukraine, the situation in Afghanistan, and the continuing crisis in Syria, the number of forcibly displaced people has skyrocketed.

Earlier this week, the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) announced the number of people forced to flee conflict, violence, human rights violations and persecution has crossed the milestone of 100 million for the first time on record.

Meanwhile, New Zealand is again preparing to fall short of its commitment to resettle 1500 refugees this year.

In fact, Aotearoa has failed to fulfil this obligation every year since the refugee resettlement quota was raised in 2018 to 1500 people a year.

Immigration New Zealand’s generalmanager of refugee and migrant services, Fiona Whiteridge, says she expects 800 refugees to be resettled inNew Zealand this financial year, ending June 30. With a little over amonth to go, the number is currently sitting at 640.

Last year, just 260 of those 1500 spots were filled.

Of course, Covid-19 and the related border closures have had a significant impact on the UN’s ability to evacuate and process refugees, and on New Zealand’s ability to receive, isolate and resettle them.

But as border restrictions melt away, and as the prime minister tells theworld New Zealand is a kind, compassionate place that’s open for business, there seems to be a question mark around whom that message applies to.

Golriz Ghahraman, the Green Party’s refugee and humanitarian issues spokesperson, says if New Zealand wants to sell that message to the world, then it needs to walk the walk.

‘‘And currentlywe are not walking the walk when it comes to prioritising our humanitarian obligations and human rights, concerns around the world.’’

New Zealand presents itself as a leader on human rights, freedom and equality, says Ghahraman, a refugee from Iran. ‘‘If we want to lead on these issues, then we need to be seen to be doing thework as well, and we’re currently not.’’

Coming into the next election, the country is facing a raft of domestic challenges, but governments have the ability to focus on more than one thing.

‘‘New Zealanders have shown time and time again that we do care about the world around us, we do want to be good international citizens,’’ Ghahraman says.

‘‘I don’t think it would be wise for the Government – or for any political party – to assume that New Zealanders only care about our own immediate problems right now, especially with the war [in Ukraine] that’s really captured people’s imaginations.’’

InMarch 2020, the UNHCR and the International Organisation of Migration (IOM) suspended resettlement departures for refugees as part of efforts to stop the spread of Covid-19.

And on March 13, New Zealand’s last intake arrived, before the refugee quota programme was suspended. But by August 2020, the UNHCR had announced the resumption of resettlements to countries with appropriate capacity, processes and safe travel routes in place. By early 2021, the global refugee organisationwas pleadingwith countries to find strategies and pathways to welcome refugees and support asylum seekers.

Throughout this period, New Zealand took a small number of emergency refugee cases.

In a statement, Immigration Minister Kris Faafoi said the Government takes its international humanitarian responsibilities seriously and is committed to working with international partners to contribute to the support of, and to find durable protection solutions for, refugees who need that protection.

The recent doubling of the refugee quota is a demonstration of that commitment, Faafoi says. As are Aotearoa’s contributions to international peacekeeping and disarmament, and to supporting humanitarian aid through the United Nations and NGOs.

Faafoi referenced the Covid19 disruptions, which saw the refugee resettlement programme put on hold, followed by a slow resumption in February 2021. Covid is also the reason why the Government downwardly revised the quota to 750-1000 for the year ending June 30, 2022.

With borders fully reopening at the end of July, the Government will work to ensure the quota is fully met, Faafoi says.

While Covid-19 did create a genuine barrier to resettlement, refugee advocates and NGOs believe obligations to refugees weren’t prioritised properly during the pandemic, and could have been.

The result of pausing the country’s refugee resettlement programmewas that the quota was not met for three years, despite growing global need.

‘‘That’s lives at risk. It’s people left in a war zone, it’s people left in refugee camps with Covid raging, throughwinters,’’ the Greens’ Ghahraman says.

There have been calls to roll over the unused quota spots into subsequent years, especially as the refugee crisis escalates. But the Government has previously ruled this out, meaning come July 1, the counter resets to zero.

But before this discussion can be had, questions needed to be asked aboutwhether the country is in a position to meet its obligations in the coming year, the one ending June 2023.

At this rate, says refugee advocate and Fulbright scholar Guled Mire, the Government will again fail to meet its commitment to resettle 1500 refugees in the coming financial year.

For the past couple of years, New Zealand has had to look after its own. Now, with the borders open, things need to change, Mire says. If they don’t, Ardern does not have the right to paint her Government as kind and compassionate, ‘‘when you’ve literally ignored the most vulnerable people in the world’’.

Mire says the Government has a plan for everything else, but not for how to fulfil its humanitarian obligations. ‘‘That is something that we need to be able to confront as a country, that is our reality, and we need to be able to live with that. It’s an embarrassing one.’’

Work is happening in this area, with ImmigrationNew Zealand thismonth announcing new community support providers for refugees arriving as part of the quota programme; aswell as the establishment of an independent refugee policy advisory panel.

Cabinet recently agreed to settle 1500 refugees annually for the next three years from July 2022. And a refresh ofNew Zealand’s refugee and migrant resettlement strategy is currently underway.

However, Mire says the Government needs to do more. ‘‘The Government needs to stop using Covid as an excuse. It has been a convenient excuse for two years.’’

It had been difficult to discuss the global refugee crisis while the borders were shut, and New Zealandwas focussing on keeping Covid-19 out. But the situation had moved on.

The pandemic has only exacerbated the crisis, with now more than 100 million people considered refugees, he says.

Data from UNHCR shows refugee resettlement hit a record low in 2020, due to Covid-19, but the number of forcibly displaced people continued to rise.

The number of forcibly displaced people worldwide rose towards 90m by the end last year, propelled by new waves of violence or protracted conflict in countries including Ethiopia, Burkina Faso, Myanmar, Afghanistan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

In addition, the war in Ukraine has displaced 8m people within the country this year, and more than 6m have been recorded as fleeing from Ukraine.

Both Faafoi and Immigration New Zealand’s Whiteridge pointed to special efforts to resettle those facing some of the most immediate threats. Last year, New Zealand offered residence, under a special policy, to about 1500 Afghan citizenswho were at risk of harm due to their support for New Zealand activities. New Zealand did not make specific spaces for Afghan refugees when the Taliban took control, throwing the country into chaos.

The Government also recently announced a special two-year visa that allows for Ukrainians based in New Zealand to bring in their immediate families. About 150 people have arrived inNew Zealand under this visa category so far. To date, New Zealand has not received any Ukrainian refugee referrals from UNHCR.

And since 2016, 925 Syrian refugees have resettled in New Zealand.

Currently, New Zealand’s refugee quota allocation is split 50% Asia Pacific, 20% Americas, 15% Middle East, and 15% Africa. Immigration New Zealand did not provide up-to-date information on whether the allocations are being met.

Aotearoa Resettled Community Coalition chief executive Abann Yor says it’s important to remember the New Zealand Government has beenworking within the constraints, and upon the advice, of UNHCR. Going forward, Yorwould like to see more done to restore the dignity and status of those who are resettled in New Zealand.

Their human rights needed to be returned, and their image restored, in order for these new residents to prosper, he says. ‘‘If we provide a healing process that will enable them to recover, to discover the reality ofwhat New Zealand is offering them to rebuild their lives, this is what distinguishes our country and the rest of theworld – by returning people their rights.’’

While there is more to be done for resettled communities in New Zealand, the broader aim is to prevent refugee numbers from growing, Yor says.

‘‘Internationally, New Zealand should have a really clear truth, that it’s not OK to produce refugees around the world. Any kind of conflict in any form is not OK for humanity and the environment we live in.’’

This was a message sent by Ardern during her appearance on The Late Show in New York City this week.

‘‘It’s not about size. It’s about values,’’ she told talk show host Stephen Colbert on thewar in Ukraine,’’ she said. ‘‘And in these moments, standing together, regardless of whether you’re on the other side of the world or not, and showing that this is not a conflict that we’re going to let happen in the shadows. Wewill speak up, we will speak against it, and stand together until it ends.’’

War. Soaring fuel prices. Fears about future oil supplies. Inflation . . . No, it’s not about today – New Zealand has been through all this before, when inflation was twice as high as now, mortgage rates were over 20% and the economywas experiencing its worst recession in decades.

The crisis of the 1970s and 80s was the biggestwe’d faced since World War II, says Bill Birch, the energyminister at the time. ‘‘In 1979, New Zealand suddenly lost half its oil supply. The Government could not idly stand by and do nothing.’’

Its response was staggering investment in major energy projects, which came to be known as Think Big. As part of awider growth strategy, more than $8 billion was invested (about $26b today). One of the projectswas world-leading, and all aimed to increase use of New Zealand’s energy resources and earn foreign currency.

But just a few years later, Labour’s 1984 election victory ushered in the radical era of what became known as Rogernomics. It changed the nation and our systems of government into what we still have today. The energy projects would be discredited and, in many cases, sold – at giveaway prices.

The 12 years of Think Big and Rogernomics were transformative, and the biggest impactwas in the energy sector. But the changes they wrought permeate every aspect of society.

A book about those heady times has just been written by a former top public servant from the 1980s. John Boshier’s Power Surge results from his recollections as an insider and extensive research. His aim is to understand the turning points, and explorewhat motivated the key people.

Think Big had its beginnings in the international oil shocks of the 1970s. Oil prices increased 400% from 1973, and New Zealand was particularly hard-hit.

The public urged Robert Muldoon’s National government to act. Fuel imports were costing three timesmore than six years earlier, and power blackouts had hit cities. To cut fuel use, ‘‘car-less days’’ were introduced. Meanwhile, New Zealand was in recession.

Muldoon then unveiled an attractive new policy: the country would become as self-sufficient as possible in transport fuels, using the new Maui natural gas field.

The biggest decision was to wind back the planned use of natural gas in power stations and allocate it instead tomake petrochemicals such as methanol and ammonia-urea for farming.

Thousands of vehicles were converted to run on compressed natural gas (CNG) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).

The growth strategy aimed to pull New Zealand out of recession, creating jobs and boosting exports, but had limited success. So the emphasis moved to bigger projects based on energy resources, which were hoped to produce a quicker result.

In his 1981 electionmanifesto, Muldoon said ‘‘growth means independence and independence means we don’t get pushed around by other countries’ problems. We’ve got to think big and we are going to train the extra skilled workers needed to put these projects in place. Restructuring is the onlyway out.’’

He termed inflation the No 1 enemy, and his controversial wage-price freeze tried to control it, hitting ordinary people and businesses alike.

To protect motorists from any more overseas oil shocks, the world’s first ‘‘synfuel’’ plantwas built in Taranaki, tomake a third of NZ’s petrol from natural gas. TheMarsden Pt oil refinery was expanded to make diesel. These projects cost about $4b. Marsden Pt closed its refining operations in March, at the same time as the Ukraine crisis. The world oil market has become volatile and confused, just like the 1970s.

Think Big also resulted in the massive expansions of New Zealand Steel and the Tiwai Pt aluminium smelter to boost exports.

Formore than 50 years the smelter has employed thousands of people and has been amainstay of the Southland economy.

Auckland’s NZ Steel expansion was the most controversial, because it relied on substantial state support and tariff protection. Industrial disputes delayed completion by two years and effectively doubled the cost.

Another fraught project was the Clyde high dam. Its cost soared because of the discovery of an earthquake fault and slow-moving landslides. Though hugely controversial at the time, its renewable electricity is now viewed as highly valuable in a carbon-constrainedworld.

Other Think Big schemes saw the creation of a new North Island gas pipeline network and a methanol plant in Taranaki using Maui gas for export. About 400km of theNorth IslandMain Trunk railway were electrified; the biggest single project in its history.

Not since the era of Julius Vogel in the 1870s had so much infrastructure been created. Tens of thousands of construction workerswere employed for more than five years.

In the longer run, exports worth billions were created, resulting in new industries, growth and jobs. It was claimed the 1980 growth strategy could produce up to 410,000 jobs, but as events unfolded, the resultwas much fewer.

Regulation of many industries was pervasive, while employment relations were centralised through large trade unions. Strikes and disputeswere frequent, and Muldoon became notorious for his heavy-handed interventions and control.

Stirrings for a radically new role for government began with leading economists in the Planning Council, Treasury and Reserve Bank, together with the Labour Party in Opposition. Labour’s finance spokesman, Roger Douglas, was very public in saying there had to be ‘‘a better way’’. Treasury’s watershed 1984 Briefing to the Incoming Government changed everything.

It said radical reform across the board was needed, and the role of government in most sectors of the economy should be changed.

It was unequivocal in its criticisms of previous policies and said the economywas one of the most lacklustre in the developed world. It scathingly blamed ‘‘unwarranted state monopolies’’ for holding prices below the cost of supply to constrain inflation.

The drive for increased energy self-sufficiency was rejected.

After its victory in the 1984 election, Labour embarked on a strategy of revolution, not evolution. The tsunami of change came to be called Rogernomics. It relied on liberating the economy from political intervention, and producing efficiencies through market forces and competition.

It put consumer choices at the centre of economic life. Inflation would be the responsibility of an independent Reserve Bank controlling the money supply.

The most immediately obvious reform was the transformation of nine government departments into state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in April 1987. The energy sector faced dramatic change. Bulk electricity priceswent up 25% and coal 35%. In 1988 petroleum imports and prices were deregulated. World oil prices then fell and motorists benefited.

TheMarsden Pt refinery, previously protected from competition, now had to compete against imports. It reduced its costs, and survived until earlier this year when mega refineries in Asia threatened its profitability.

Competition was introduced to the electricity sector in a similar way. Restrictions on building new power stations were removed, and the century-old ‘‘obligation to supply’’ electricity jettisoned. Sometimes essential household health machines were disconnected after bills went unpaid.

Previous power boards and municipal electricity departments (MEDs) were replaced by competing companies retailing electricity at local level.

Years later, the shares in some power boards were given away to tens of thousands of their consumers, who then sold them.

Proliferatingwindfarms are a visible outcome of the new electricity market.

After Labour won a second term in 1987, the privatisation of SOEs began. Theywere to operate in amarket with ‘‘lighthanded’’ regulation. The public, including loyal Labour Party members, were shocked.

First in linewas Air New Zealand, followed by the state oil and gas company Petrocorp, both of which had already floated a minority of their shares. The disastrous sale of NZ Steel to Equiticorp coincidedwith the sharemarket crash in October 1987.

Ministers moved quickly in December 1987 to sell Petrocorp. Fletcher Challenge gained 70% of the company’s equity in ‘‘the best 30 seconds’’ in its history. The deal privatised themonopoly highpressure gas network that supplied North Island cities, togetherwith the methanol and ammonia-urea plants.

Meanwhile, Taranaki’s synthetic petrol plant was losing money for the Crown because the world price of oil had fallen below break-even. Without calling tenders, the government virtually gave away the plant to Fletcher Challenge in a July 1990 fire sale shortly before the election.

The Maui natural gas field was sold to Fletcher Challenge as well. Finance ministers believed they had to get the synthetic petrol venture off the state’s books quickly; price did not matter.

Fletcher got the deal of the century, but later had to sell to Canadian-owned Methanex. It soon stopped petrol production and converted the plant tomake more profitable methanol for export. The combined output of theWaitara and neighbouring Motunui plants produces earnings of over $1b a year.

These ventures, the gas network and Maui are part of Think Big’s enduring value to the national economy, and have made Taranaki New Zealand’s wealthiest province.

Selling natural resources to foreign companies has been controversial. Boshier speculates that an alternative method of sale could have proved more popular, such as that adopted for Telecom in 1990 (for $4.25b). A similar model was used for the partial sales of electricity generators Mighty River Power, Meridian and Genesis in 2013.

The John Key government’s plans to sell the generators provoked the largest petition in New Zealand’s history. To overcome the objections, a mixed-ownership model was used: the state retained 51% and individual investors could buy the rest. The sales proved popular and the government enjoys better earnings now than when it owned them outright.

If the 1980s were tumultuous, the future is probably more so. Some of the Think Big projects emit carbon dioxide and face big costs when they have to pay for emission permits. Most are exposed to international trade, so could be heavily penalised if their competitors do not face the same costs.

The Tiwai Pt smelter’s future is uncertain. Fluctuating profits have caused owner Rio Tinto to say itwill close in 2024, though its metal is among the purest in the world and the smelter uses renewable hydro-electricity.

It may yet get a reprieve, however; aluminium prices recently reached an all-time high, and its profitability is improving. But the smelter emits about 700,000 tonnes of CO a year.

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If it does close, smelting would shift to Asia, where electricity is mainly produced from coal, which produces far more CO . But Tiwai

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Pt’s closure would also release Manapouri electricity for other industry, such as amassive data centre or green hydrogen.

If the power is sent to the North Island, new transmission lines would be needed. Transpower is reluctant to commit to this major investment until the smelter’s future is clarified.

Climate change policieswill also have big implications for NZ Steel. The easily recyclablemetal will be in big demand to reduce carbon emissions in transport and construction. But the Glenbrook plant emits 1.8m tonnes of CO a

2 year, which are hard to reduce. NZ Steel says it will rely heavily on carbon offsets, such as forestry, as it seeks to remain open until 2050.

Marsden Pt refinery’s closure in March raised concerns about our vulnerability to overseas oil shocks. (Ironically, the refinery was expanded during Think Big because of this very concern.)

The Government has tackled this by buying international options for future supplies of petrol, diesel and jet fuel. This, and a roughly equal amount held by oil companies, gives a combined total of 90 days’ supply for emergencies.

The Taranaki methanol plants will incur rising gas prices beyond 2029. The industry will face financial risks because of this and the need to pay for – or offset – carbon dioxide emissions.

If the plants are forced to close, productionwould be transferred to Asia, posing another moral dilemma for New Zealand’s tradeexposed sector. Green hydrogen fuel for trucks is becoming a realistic proposition, and First Gas plans to add it to its natural gas pipeline network.

Climate change is now the overwhelming concern. As transport and process heating is electrified, a vastly increased contribution is needed from solar and wind energy.

Because more than 60% of our electricity generation at present comes from dams, dry years pose a particular problem. In the past this has been overcome by burning gas or coal at Huntly power station, but these carbon emissions are now becoming increasingly unacceptable.

The Government is investigating a gargantuan scheme of ‘‘pumped storage’’ 600metres above Roxburgh on the Clutha River. Designing this $4b scheme as a commercial proposition will pose significant challenges, rivalling any Think Big project. The energyministerwill give an update nextmonth; a Cabinet decision is due in December.

The Ukrainewar has heightened awareness of New Zealand’s vulnerable energy supply. Interruptions to the flow of oil and gas from Russia have raised pricesworldwide. Echoing the 1970s, our fuel supply is again threatened by politics and war on the other side of the world.

But now the imperatives of climate change pose more difficulties and challenges than they did then.

The 1980s have much to teach us aboutmanaging capital cost, funding major projects, designing fallback options, avoiding big bangs, and resisting a crisis mentality.

Stephen Stewart edited Power Surge, and contributed to the writing.