Smarts alonewon’t make Luxon PM

Last December I bumped into Christopher Luxon the morning after Parliament had risen for the year. It was a Thursday and most people were knocking round in Friday casual. Luxon, then the newly appointed National leader, was part of the vibe, wearing a smart black sweater.

We were due to meet again for an end-of-year interview later in the day.

He was late to the interview and apologised – he is big on manners and assiduously introduces himself and gets to know anyone present at interviews – something a lot of politicians don’t do (for some, anyone except the interviewer might as well be wallpaper). In any case, he had been at former National MPJohn Luxton’s memorial service and explained he had to change out of his suit, which was why he was late.

It was an early indication of Luxon’s approach: he barely had staff at this point, had appointed chief-of-staff Cameron Burrows only a few days prior, but for whatever reason, that particular day, he wanted to give interviews and be photographed in the black sweater – not a suit which he had worn to a funeral.

This was a guy who thought carefully about his image and brand.

In a couple of months Luxon will have been in the job for a year. He has undoubtedly lifted National’s performance, discipline and messaging. Polls now show him as having at least a 50/50 chance of being prime minister come next year.

Interestingly, and of concern for both main parties, on most polling National and Labour’s overall share of the vote has fallen into the mid-30s to high-30s. The beneficiaries of this have been ACT and the Greens, which both have been polling better.

In the latest 1News Kantar Poll, Luxon’s National hit 37% of the vote, Labour 34%, and the Greens and ACT both 9%. NZ First came in

Political editor at 3%, while Te PātiMāori was at 2%.

Luxon and Jacinda Ardern have the same net approval rating of +15 in the poll. For Luxon this is a fall of 7 points from January. That in itself is not much of a surprise. When there’s a new leader whom voters didn’t know that well, more people are likely to form more firm opinions over time, and favourability can drop.

Eitherway, public perception is firming up. The question the Nats now have to face is: havewe plateaued?

Given that on most polls the National Party is now threatening to win the next election and govern with ACT, it’s plateauing from a position of strength. But the Luxonfuelled rise does appear to have now settled into a holding pattern.

Within National’s caucus there is an undeniable sense of momentum: that the parliamentary party is disciplined and is getting runs on the board against what it regards as an incompetent Government.

As well as the momentum, there is a genuine feeling of relief that National is again a fighting force. And one that the economic times seem to suit.

Yet for all that, there are some misgivings within corners of the caucus. Not with Luxon’s performance, or where the party is now at, but with his ultrapragmatic approach. This takes two forms.

The first is to do with ACT. There are some low-level grumbles around the fact that Luxon doesn’t appear to care if ACT takes a lot of National’s votes, provided he becomes PM.

But Luxon’s attitude towards ACT doesn’t seem to be driven by a lack of principle, but simply looking at the electoral maths and the political lie of the land.

To win the election National needs to take a bunch of votes from Labour, not get bogged down competing with ACT for votes. This was one of the mistakes Judith Collins made, the deeper into her leadership National ventured.

In addition, this particular election is likely to throw up a variety of race and culture issues that haven’t really been in play since 2005.

The speed and general enthusiasm withwhich the concepts of Treaty partnership and co-governance have been embraced by the Government do risk leaving some traditional Labour voters behind.

Then this week, Kelvin Davis essentially accused ACT MPKaren Chhour, who is Māori, and was once in the care ofwhat morphed into Oranga Tamariki, of essentially not being a proper

Māori. He subsequently apologised, but it is clear that race as a big and potentially divisive issue did not die with the political career of Don Brash.

And while there are clearly pockets of racism, just because a person isn’t too keen on cogovernance or doesn’t really understandwhy Treaty partnership is needed doesn’t make them a racist. It can be fertile territory for both National and ACT. And National gets to leave the tougher stuff to ACT – if itwants to.

Through ACT, National gets exposure to any upside of the issues, but without maybe putting off the more centrist voters.

The other small grumble within some parts of the National caucus is over what some see as a lack of principle from Luxon – in the sense that National seems towant to be in government but doesn’t actually have an awful lot planned that is different to Labour.

This was a criticism that some within the party also levelled at John Key: the idea that, actually, his government made the ‘‘thirdway’’ Labourism of Helen Clark a bit more efficient and cost-effective.

It is certainly a view shared by both Labour and ACT.

Yet Luxon doesn’t seem particularly lacking in principle. In fact, more than most politicians, the former corporate executive and evangelical Christian appears to possess a far greater sense of who he is and what he believes, and is comfortable in his own skin.

What he is still figuring out is how to craft a political narrative that presents him as a personwith at least some of the answers.

While he hasn’t made a big political play of it yet, one thing that gets him constantly exercised is education.

Overall, he’s mostly good, but clearly not without error; and most importantly his politics are still very much learned, rather than instinctive. Still, he is smart, he is an information sponge, and an inveterate asker of questions.

His pick for his deputy, Nicola Willis, has been a very strong performer in finance and in her determination to turn any new charges into taxes. In the House, National’s mood is improved. It feels it has Labour on the run.

The quiet criticisms also seem to confuse principle with originality. Is much of Luxon’s platform to date original? No, it’s not, nor is it close to fully formed, but that’s not a political crime.

It’smostly pretty small-target, centre-right stuff and strategically revolves around dismantling Labour’s claims to competence and planning: two things that drove the centre-left party to a majority in 2020.

Nevertheless, there is still a slight wariness around the leader that is difficult to describe. He is respected and has impressed his colleagues. He has also taken National back to basics. But he is still an unknown quantity to many.

Ten months in, and National’s turnaround has been remarkable. The question is now one of economic environment and momentum.

The instincts that informed the black sweater have taken National so far; now it requires a step up to the next level.