Robertson goes safe, not Central

News that neither Wellington Central MP and Minister of Finance Grant Robertson nor Rongotai MP Paul Eagle will be standing for re-election in their electorates leaves two of the city’s three general electorates vacant for new contenders.

Former career-politician and Wellington political commentator Peter Dunne says he was not surprised by either vacancy though the former MP for

hāriu couldn’t think of a recent time that two seats had been vacated.

‘‘Having two [MPs] pull out of two of three city seats [which] become vacant is a bit unusual.’’

Dunne felt Eagle’s retirement was ‘‘obvious’’ following his failed mayoralty bid. He said Robertson followed Bill English and Michael Cullen in going list only as minister of finance.

Robertson first entered Parliament in 2008, as the MP for Wellington Central – a seat he’s held ever since.

The 2020 election saw Robertson take on National’s deputy leader and finance spokesperson Nicola Willis, now standing in the electorate of hāriu, and Greens’ co-leader James Shaw in the Wellington Central electorate.

Shaw has said he will be nominating himself to stand for the Green Party in Wellington again. The party’s Wellington branch was expected to make campaign decisions in the coming weeks.

It was thought one of two Wellingtonbased Labour list MPs may be put forward to fill Robertson’s vacancy: Covid-19 Minister Ayesha Verrall is a Wellingtonian, who entered Parliament via the Labour list last election and Ibrahim Omer, who also entered Parliament as list MP in 2020 and already shared Robertson’s Wellington electorate office.

Dunne said Robertson running as a list MP offered him a way out of politics if Labour was relegated to the Opposition that wouldn’t prompt a by-election.

It also offered lower-ranking list MPs a shot, though Dunne was not sure who would be put forward.

‘‘From that point of view I think it’s a sensible decision,’’ he said. ‘‘There seems to be a bit of a picture emerging that what Labour is trying to do is protect itself in the event of an election defeat, let alone a big one, that it’s got space for people it wants to protect to come back.’’

The Wellington Central electorate comprises the central and inner suburbs including Mount Cook, Mount Victoria, Oriental Bay through to Thorndon, Northland, Karori and Mākara.

It has predominantly been held by Labour MPs, with Robertson capturing a majority (57.7%) of the 47,401 valid electorate votes – a margin of 18,878.

Wellington Central is described as one of the most highly educated and wealthy electorates in the country.

Green MP Julie Anne Genter has announced she is running for Wellington’s Rongotai electorate.

Eagle has been the Rongotai MP for two terms, starting in 2017. He captured a majority (52.3%) of the 40,404 valid electorate votes. Before him, Rongotai was held by Labour MP Annette King for almost 20 years, starting in 1996.

Dunne said the Greens had been eyeing up the possibility of winning electorate seats, which provided a ‘‘backstop’’.

There would definitely be competition as he thought both Genter and Shaw would be ‘‘standing to win’’, though whether they would challenge both electorate seats remained to be seen.

A list MP, Genter felt emboldened by Chloe Swarbrick’s win in Auckland Central at the last election, but acknowledged the Wellington seat was considered a Labour stronghold.

Former city councillor Fleur Fitzsimons is rumoured to be considering a run for the seat on the Labour ticket.

The electorate covers the Eastern and Southern suburbs of Wellington, including Island Bay, Newtown, Miramar, and Hataitai. It also includes the Chatham Islands.

Labour’s sitting hāriu MP Greg O’Connor has been re-selected to run for the northern Wellington electorate and will be facing off against Willis.

‘‘There seems to be a bit of a picture emerging . . . Labour is trying to protect itself in the event of an election defeat.’’

Peter Dunne Political commentator