The two Chrises and the battle for the nation

It’s such a hackneyed cliche, but a week truly is a long time in politics. A week ago Labour was reeling from the news that Jacinda Ardern would step down from the top job and that the caucus would have to elect a new leader. By last Saturday morning the party had decided that Chris Hipkins was going to be the guy. He was the only nomination and was sworn in on Wednesday. Carmel Sepuloni is his deputy prime minister and Kelvin Davis his deputy Labour leader.

Within the Labour Party caucus there is a fizz and effervescence that has not been seen for a long time. They are ready to fight National and ACT.

While Ardern was in charge there was no question that she was going to lead Labour to the election. Labour’s polling had been seeing a long-term decline with National being rejuvenated under Christopher Luxon as cost-of-living pressures, worker shortages and general post-Covid fatigue took hold.

But now that she is gone, it does seem like a weight has been lifted from the shoulders of Labour MPs, along with a perhaps silent recognition that while Ardern was a leader for the times, the train has moved on, and she wasn’t going to be the best prospect to lead Labour in an election fought on economic issues, the cost of living, crime and a Government with a centralising agenda. An election that could be close and could require some pretty negative politics.

For Hipkins then, the next few weeks are going to be crucial. Changing leaders is not something that is done lightly and usually there are transaction costs associated with changes, ie party disunity (which is not the case on this occasion) or the feeling in voters’ minds that the new person might not be so good, or that things can’t have been going too swimmingly if the old leader decided to up and leave.

Given the strain the past few years has placed on everyone, Ardern’s explanation for leaving – that there was nothing left in the tank – was quite understandable.

However, Hipkins is going to have to take action to reset the Government’s direction and quickly. Due to the Auckland long weekend, the post-Cabinet press conference next week will be held on Tuesday.

Provided all the ducks are in a row that may be when the reshuffle is announced, otherwise it is likely to be on Wednesday.

All Cabinet reshuffles are fraught affairs, with a tension between wanting to refresh and make the executive look a bit new and different, managing internal caucus dynamics and not hacking off the wrong person by demoting them.

The reprioritisation of policies – Hipkins has confirmed this will likely include some of the things on a list published by Stuff yesterday and swirling around in other media – will be a second important plank. Rather than a big bang announcement, this is likely to take place over the coming weeks in a series of rolling announcements.

But a reprioritisation really begs a question: a reprioritisation of what?

It won’t be good enough to just chuck the odd media merger and dank old bit of legislation over the side: it will have to be replaced by some actions on the ‘‘bread and butter’’ issues Chris Hipkins says his Government is concerned about.

Unless there are some bold and credible-looking moves on the economic front, there is every chance the initial excitement of the Hipkins ascendancy becomes muted as the same very difficult problems – inflation in particular – are still there after all the excitement of a new leader fades.

For Christopher Luxon, the Hipkins rise also produces a new set of challenges. He has been, for the most part, extremely disciplined in sticking to the script: Labour is not competent, cost of living is out of control, there’s too much bureaucracy and there’s a law and order problem. Repetition of political messages is no bad thing. Reporters tire of politicians’ messages often months before they really seep into the public consciousness.

However, while Ardern was leader the differences between her and Luxon were so stark that he could run his own race without too much close comparison. In a race with Hipkins those similarities and differences will likely come in for a bit more scrutiny.

Luxon has proven that he has mostly good instincts. He wouldn’t be where he is if he didn’t. One of his main issues – and one he will have to overcome – is to better trust the right ones over the coming months. At the end of last year he gave an excellent speech in response to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s address to the New Zealand Parliament. He gave a principled and well thought-out view of the war, speaking about it with definite moral clarity.

While Luxon is often at pains to point out how he isn’t a career politician, a lot of what he has done as leader is similar to that of a career politician. Small target, safe plays, plenty of focus groups and polling to inform strategy. But, as the year continues, he will have to be a bit more authentic and that means making more stands on more issues and drawing a few more lines in the sand. When you are opposition leader, you do want to keep a certain amount of flexibility and not box yourself into positions, but too much of it just makes you look slippery or disingenuous.

For Hipkins being authentic is easier: he is a political junkie who spends most of his time doing politics, but when he isn’t he is a general sort of knockabout suburban dad. That’s who he is.

Luxon’s arc is more complicated. From a middle-class family, he has excelled and become wealthy in the process, holding big

For Hipkins then, the next few weeks are going to be crucial. Changing leaders is not something that is done lightly and usually there are transaction costs associated with changes.

jobs and living offshore for a long period. His story and how he relates who he is to what he does to ordinary New Zealanders is a harder needle to thread.

However, his more immediate task will be to try to show that Labour is Labour and if you didn’t like them with Jacinda Ardern, you certainly won’t like them with Chris Hipkins.

For Hipkins, his new Labour Party will have to show that there is more on the tin than just a new sticker, and in pretty short order.