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Good COP, bad COP

About 25,000 people will attend the UN climate summit in Glasgow, from world leaders and business executives to activists and protesters, each with their agenda. Olivia Wannan uncovers what’s on some of their to-do lists.

As host, the United Kingdom government shoulders the most responsibility for the

26th Conference of the Parties (or

COP26) climate negotiations. Pushed back from December

2020 to next month, there’s still a lot of ground to cover. Around the globe, British diplomats, including high commissioner to New Zealand Laura Clarke, have been working since the 2019 meeting in Madrid closed.

Clarke and her diplomatic peers are trying to foster a spirit of ‘‘virtuous competitiveness between countries’’. To help, the UK announced a 68 per cent cut in emissions by 2030, followed by

78 per cent by 2035.

That promise for 2030 is what’s known as an NDC, or Nationally Determined Contribution. In 2020, all countries were supposed to announce an updated, more ambitious NDC – a ramped-up pledge to cut emissions.

About two-thirds of all countries have done this. But many – including New Zealand – have missed the deadline, opting to wait until the COP summit to make their new pledges.

By this point, developed countries were also supposed to provide $100 billion each year to help developing countries cut their carbon and adapt to the effects of climate change.

Another key goal was to finalise the Paris Agreement ‘‘rulebook’’. The landmark 2015 agreement set out a high-level framework for the world to cut emissions – but it left the details of how this would work to be decided at future meetings.

Most of this is sorted, but the rules on how transparent countries must be, and on an international carbon market to govern the trading of carbon credits, are still being debated.

Bringing all these tasks together now falls to the UK – and to hundreds of diplomats from around the world.

So, how close are they?

Since 2019, big net-zero commitments have been made by Japan, South Korea and China. After Joe Biden won the US presidency in 2020, he rejoined the Paris Agreement, and set a target to halve emissions by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050 at the latest.

Clarke estimates, since 2019, the proportion of the global economy covered by a net-zero target rose from 30 per cent to 70 per cent. ‘‘So there is that sense of momentum.’’

Even so, the world is not on track to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. A new UN report shows that, even if all netzero pledges were achieved (a big if), that would limit global warming to 2.2C.

In addition, most NDCs for 2030 are insufficient to reach net zero in time: if countries stayed on the track set by these, global temperatures would rise by 2.7C, the report concluded.

‘‘We absolutely have to see that enhanced commitment,’’ Clarke says.

UK diplomats have also invested time on the outstanding issues in the Paris rulebook, she adds.

‘‘We are trying, in a way, to put ourselves in a position as honest broker of those negotiations – pushing countries to think about how they can compromise.’’

A revamp of the schedule may help, she says: ‘‘It used to be the case that leaders came in right at the end. We’re bringing world leaders together at the start to really try to set the tone in terms of that high ambition and give direction to their negotiators.’’

Climate-concerned businesses will be keeping an eye on one negotiating room in particular: on the rules for an international carbon market.

For a business or product to be considered carbon-neutral, the company must buy carbon offsets for projects that are in addition to government policies. That was easier before the Paris Agreement, because developing countries were not asked to cut emissions.

Now, with Paris in force, everyone needs to cut carbon. The rules that dictate the carbon credits to be used by governments and, perhaps, companies are still up for debate.

As the chief executive of carbon offsetting firm Carbon Click, Dave Rouse is attending the summit in the hopes of promoting a quality rating system for carbon credits purchased voluntarily.

‘‘Currently, a company can choose cheap offsets to reach net zero, and gain a similar social licence to operate as a company that drives net zero out of highquality credits,’’ he says.

He’d like to see all credits given a star rating, with a higher score for projects that, for example, pay a living wage or boost biodiversity. He won’t be able to watch the negotiations, but he’s hoping to meet key figures outside the negotiating rooms and publicise the idea during the open forums.

He understands it isn’t an issue the New Zealand Government delegates will bring to the table – but he hopes someone else might. ‘‘It’s a key missing link between greenwashing and meaningful impact, and it will drive the value and therefore funding required to create these highvalue projects we all need to succeed.’’

‘‘When we say this is a last-chance COP, this is do-or-die for the Pacific ... entire nations are already disappearing.’’

KDee Aimiti Ma’ia’i

Refreshed US role

After being pulled out of the Paris Agreement by thenpresident Donald Trump, the US has spent the runup to the event re-establishing itself as a leader.

Kevin Covert, the charge´ d’affaires based at the US embassy in Wellington, says the other parties have been welcoming.

‘‘They recognise that we have a role to play. We’re a significant contributor to global emissions – we don’t hide from that, we acknowledge that. By showing leadership to reduce those emissions, we can also hopefully set an example for others.’’

Biden – ‘‘passionate about this subject’’ – will be attending the Glasgow talks, he adds.

Yet Biden’s plans to cut emissions and provide $11.4b in climate finance are limited by the House of Representatives and Senate. A single senator from the coal-producing state of West Virginia is on track to kill a key climate policy in his own party’s bill.

Covert disagrees that these limitations affect the US’ position as a climate leader. ‘‘It’s about showing up, at a presidential level . . . We are focused on climate change across our government.’’

The US special presidential envoy for climate change, John Kerry, has been pushing for global action, Covert says. Part of this work involves the private sector.

According to a Bloomberg report, Kerry has signed up some of the world’s biggest companies to a First Movers Coalition, to cut their climate impact. This is expected to be officially announced at the summit.

Meanwhile, attendees representing the public hope the world, and New Zealand, will stop the empty talk and start acting with urgency.

Pacific New Zealanders KDee Aimiti Ma’ia’i and Marco de Jong will be at the summit, joining other indigenous youth. The Rhodes scholars at Oxford University are both researching climate issues as part of their PhD theses.

The New Zealand Government must announce an ambitious NDC, de Jong says, plus domestic policies to curb carbon. It should also sign up to the global pledge to cut methane by 30 per cent.

Globally, fossil fuel subsidies and new coal, oil and gas projects must be ruled out, he says, adding that New Zealand has become a climate hypocrite, ‘‘if not a climate criminal’’.

‘‘There seems to be a lack of political courage to make real changes to the way New Zealand conducts its affairs. From a Pacific perspective, we tend to pay lip service to Pacific associations whilst prioritising military, trade and colonial relationships.

‘‘We’re an active and conscious contributor to Pacific climate genocide.’’

Ma’ia’i says New Zealand often portrays itself as a selfless guardian of the Pacific. ‘‘Often – particularly in international circles – New Zealand is able to coast by on that narrative: of benevolence, being good, of being clean and green, of being forward-thinking, of being liberal without actually doing anything to substantiate that claim,’’ she said.

‘‘When we say this is a lastchance COP, this is do-or-die for the Pacific, it literally is, because climate change isn’t something that will happen – that in 20 years, we’ll see bigger tides – it’s that entire nations are already disappearing.’’

While New Zealand’s climate footprint is comparatively small, radical climate action could inspire others, de Jong says. ‘‘We need to be able to put pressure on polluters like Australia.’’

For Te Wehi Ratana, a member of Extinction Rebellion’s Te Waka Hourua, the 2015 Paris Agreement is a missed opportunity. It could have been transformational, he says.

‘‘Climate change is a byproduct of our systems, founded on extraction, exploitation and violence. So having those systems signing up to a thing to avert the crises they’re causing – without addressing the fact they’re causing them – is destined to fail.’’

During the summit, Ratana would like to see the New Zealand delegates step back and allow Pacific and indigenous views on, and solutions to, climate change take the spotlight.

‘‘In Aotearoa, for the last 180 years, our culture and way of life has been forcefully taken away from us. That is what’s going to happen to everybody – but not by the means of an oppressive system, but by the means of the climate and ecological crisis,’’ he says.

‘‘Te Tiriti justice is essential. It means tangata whenua are given the voice that is required to lead us on the path that we need to go.’’

In Depth

en-nz

2021-10-28T07:00:00.0000000Z

2021-10-28T07:00:00.0000000Z

https://fairfaxmedia.pressreader.com/article/281891596486959

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