Zero-Covid policy not a lasting solution for China

The latest versions of the omicron variant, which first appeared a year ago, are estimated to be up to 10 times more infectious than the original virus that appeared in Wuhan in late 2020. Those versions haven’t reached China yet, due to drastic curbs on travel into and out of the country, but the Chinese population is so poorly protected that the only alternatives if they arrive would be semi-permanent nationwide lockdowns or nationwide carnage.

Chinese-made vaccines are only 70% effective against earlier variants of the virus, and may be wholly ineffective against the later omicron versions. The elderly are particularly vulnerable: only 40% of the over-80s have had even a single booster shot.

An article published in Nature Medicine last March estimated that ending the zero-Covid lockdowns and quarantines in current circumstances could overwhelm hospitals, with 15 times more people needing hospital beds than those available. It predicted around 1.5 million deaths.

That would still be a far better outcome than the US record, but arriving all at once so late in the game, when the rest of the world is long past lockdowns and mass deaths, it could spell political disaster for Xi Jinping. Perhaps even for the Communist regime.