Selwyn evolves from ‘town of the future’ to the district of today

Migration is rapidly changing some of NZ’s smaller settlements. In the last of a four-part series, Keiller MacDuff describes how one of the strongest economies in the country has a growing population to match.

They fit a lot into that parcel of land between the Southern Alps and the ocean just outside Christchurch. Selwyn boasts six ski fields, the oldest agricultural teaching institution in the southern hemisphere, the site of the country’s first hydroelectric power station, the smallest settlement in New Zealand, an annual Highland Games, a controversial giant doughnut and one of the country’s most polluted bodies of water.

Tipped to be home to New Zealand’s next city, Selwyn’s population was estimated at 81,300 in June, nearly three times the 28,300 who lived in the district just over 20 years ago. In the year to June, Selwyn grew by 5%, or 4000 people: more than twice the national rate of 2%. Two-thirds moved from elsewhere in New Zealand, while nearly a fifth came from overseas.

At the heart of the district is Rolleston, once famously dubbed the “town of the future”. It’s now 18 times larger than it was in 1996 and expected to grow another 41% in the next 25 years. Lincoln is on a similar trajectory and is anticipated to grow by about 58% between now and 2048.

Beyond those two centres, Selwyn is a vast and varied 6500km² district, encompassing townships of Prebbleton, Tai Tapu, West Melton, Darfield, Kirwee, Leeston and Southbridge. It also includes New Zealand’s smallest settlement, the tiny but heavily trafficked alpine village of Arthur’s Pass.

Selwyn’s economy has seen the strongest growth in the country in recent years, and annual GDP growth regularly tops the New Zealand averages.

Analysis by consultancy Infometrics estimates Selwyn’s economy is nearly 18% larger than pre-Covid, compared to the national average of just over 8%. Rebounding tourism saw accommodation guest nights grow 64% over the last year.

Vast swathes of subdivisions encircle Rolleston and Lincoln. Faringdon, once farmland on the outer edge of Rolleston, has grown from 60 people in 1996 to almost 6000 today. When developers released a handful of sections in 2021, the website crashed as buyers rushed to reserve them.

A recent decision by the Selwyn District Council to rezone land in Lincoln nullified a local group’s bid to block a Carter Group subdivision, sparking a national debate over the loss of highly productive farmland to housing.

But all this growth creates pinch-points. According to Healthpoint, the only GP practice enrolling Rolleston residents is 20km away in Riccarton.

The town’s burgeoning population has also resulted in screeds of early child care centres, nine primary schools and a bottleneck at secondary school level. Concerns over nitrates in drinking water in some parts of the district regularly surface.

Selwyn now accounts for a quarter of Greater Christchurch’s residential consents, and house sales volumes are up 9% over the year to September, compared to a 14% fall in Christchurch.

But there are indications of a slowdown. In the September quarter, only 291 new dwellings were consented in Selwyn, the lowest since 2019. According to Quotable Value, the average house price sat at $821,814, down 2.1% on a year earlier.

Canterbury Construction Report author Mike Blackburn is puzzled by the consenting slowdown, which he said did not gel with the population rise. The drop in consents is countrywide, but the steep fall in Selwyn is striking – plummeting from more than a 150 a month to around 50.

“I’m struggling to reconcile the flat population growth in Christchurch with ongoing building activity while Selwyn keeps growing but has seen such a drop,” Blackburn said.

He said the phone stopped ringing for most builders in early 2022, and it can take 12 to 18 months to see that reflected in consents. Sales are down “significantly” more than consenting numbers suggest.

“The downturn may have started earlier and be bigger than what has been reported, with a portion – potentially 20% of consents issued – not going ahead.”

The other shift has been the style of houses being built: from single-level standalone family homes to “a significant increase” in multi-unit developments. In 2020, about 3% of Selwyn consents were for multi-unit dwellings but that has leaped to 22% in the last year. In October, multi-unit consents reached 47% of the total.

The majority are for duplexes or adjoining granny flats, but a “first of its kind” development of 26 terraced units in the Acland Park subdivision was consented in October, part of a development planned to be twice that size, Blackburn said.

The population of Darfield – “gateway to everywhere” and epicentre of the 2010 earthquake – has grown 68% since the turn of the millennium.

Errol Barnes owns the local dairy – renowned for its scoop size – and has seen “tremendous amounts of change” in 21 years. He speaks highly of mayor Sam Broughton, who was first elected in 2016 and says the council is “very proactive”.

Barnes said the town’s growth came in “ebbs and flows,” with a “constant churn” as elderly people leave for Christchurch, while the young move in, in the search for more affordable land.

The focus on growth in Rolleston and the clustering of services there can make some rural constituents “feel like they’re missing out,” said two-time Ellesmere councillor Shane Epiha, underscoring the importance of “strategic and equitable” growth.

There’s an adjustment under way as the district moves from being a quiet area with “rural values” where people help neighbours stack wood and the elderly across the road to an area with a “new dynamic”.

Services are under strain in his ward, which has around 10,000 residents, and the largest town, Leeston, is set to double its population in the next five years. The sole general practice is at capacity, and plans are yet to be firmed up on a $9m community centre and a proposal to invest in a GP premises.

The growth has left Epiha feeling the council is “often in catch-up mode”, especially in regard to consents.

He praised Broughton’s efforts to embrace a collaborative approach with mana whenua, including the appointment to council of Te Taumutu Rūnanga representative, Megen McKay, following a relationship agreement signed last year.

“Sam has been a huge driver and supporter in terms of te ao Māori perspective and culture, and I think we are ahead of the pack in a lot of ways in respecting the rangatiratanga of Ngāi Te Ruahikihiki and Ngai Tūāhuriri.”

By respecting mana whenua, “we actually gain a lot more as a district and a council,” Epiha said, citing Rolleston’s new library Te Ara Ātea.

Burnham resident Lynere Wilson and her family moved to Selwyn more than 20 years ago, attracted by land prices.

The stony alluvial soil, while not good growing, was one of the reasons the family’s section was affordable, as well as making a “huge difference” in lack of damage in the earthquakes, she said.

A commuter, Wilson loved the new southern motorway but said SH1 “was never designed to have all these people joining it”, and some sections were overburdened. She was concerned about development, particularly industrial zoning fanning out from the Rolleston Izone business park, as increased traffic from the nearby quarry already made Two Chain Rd far busier. “Those are the sort of things I don’t think are keeping pace with the growth.”

While she appreciated the youth and energy of the mayor, she felt the community was still conservative, referencing the debate over the use of te reo Māori in the new library’s name.

“In some ways we feel progressive, in some ways we definitely do not.”